Gunners given an 89% chance of securing a Champions League spot as Manchester United and Chelsea battle for fifth

Arsenal has emerged as the bookmakers’ strongest favourites to finish in the Premier League’s Champions League places for the 2026/27 campaign, according to the latest aggregated odds.

The reigning champions lead a group of five heavyweight clubs expected to dominate the race for European qualification, with the Gunners assigned an 89% probability of finishing in the top five.

Arsenal’s position at the head of the market reflects their status as defending champions and their continued strength at the top end of English football. The bookmakers expect them to be among the leading contenders once again.

Liverpool is the next most fancied side, with an 80% chance of securing a top five finish. The Reds pushed Arsenal closely last season and remain firmly in the bookmakers’ plans for another Champions League campaign.

Manchester City occupy third place at 77%, despite a disappointing campaign by their usual standards last season. Their pedigree and squad strength continue to make them one of the leading contenders for European qualification.

The battle for the final two places is considerably tighter.

Manchester United and Chelsea are both priced at a 61% chance of finishing inside the top five, leaving the Premier League giants level in the bookmakers’ assessment.

United will be hoping to return to the Champions League after falling short previously, while Chelsea are similarly looking to re-establish themselves among Europe’s elite.

With the Premier League now benefiting from five automatic Champions League places following UEFA’s coefficient allocation, the route into Europe’s premier club competition has become more competitive — and potentially more open — for the chasing pack.

However, the latest odds suggest bookmakers still expect the established heavyweights to have the upper hand.

Top Five Bookmakers’ Favourites for Champions League Qualification

1. Arsenal — 89%
2. Liverpool — 80%
3. Manchester City — 77%
4. Manchester United — 61%
5. Chelsea — 61%

While the numbers make Arsenal clear favourites, the relatively narrow gap between the clubs battling for the final two positions suggests there could be plenty of drama before the Champions League places are decided.

For now, though, the bookmakers’ message is clear: Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City are the strongest bets for a top-five finish, while Manchester United and Chelsea remain locked together in the race for the remaining places.